Don’t read this

My dear reader I have told some sad tales in the past but this one is the worst. Don’t read on if you are inclined to tears or, if you are, and do intend to read on then get the Kleenex ready. You have been warned.

My dog has been part of my life for the past 16 or so years. She is old and up until recently an active, happy sort of animal. For all this time she has been a good friend. She endured many a long run when I was on a get fit kick. She sat by me on the coldest of nights when I used to smoke (only outside the house). She served as a surrogate child for me and my beloved before we had a kid and after that she was a devoted friend for my boy. She has been a constant source of companionship in my life.

I could go on to tell a hundred stories of how she enriched my life, of her happy nature and intelligence but I wont. She is just a great dog I will leave it at that.

On Monday my partner called me at work. She was obviously upset. “What ‘s up?” “its Kosro, she wont get up”. I felt some part of the world shaking. I wanted to go home immediately but stayed at work. I held my emotions in check for the remainder of the day. I called home a couple of times during the afternoon. The old girl had managed to get up but was very shaky, confused and indecisive.

It was a long day. I got home to find my honey distracting the boy with the TV. At least he was no longer upset. I went to the garage. There was the dog lying, in her hammock, very still but breathing. Her eyes staring blindly. On the wall, directly above her bed, was a picture my son had drawn during the day. It was an image of the dogs face with the words ‘Kosro we love you’. Alone in the garage with my poor dog I broke down.

That evening, after the boy had gone to bed, we calmly discussed the next steps. We evaluated the when and where. It was surreal. Discussing the time, when would be most convenient, where would be her final resting spot. Truth be told we had discussed this subject before; she is an old dog, but, the harsh reality of planning the execution, the actual time, was something else.

The next day Kosro seemed to recover, she was up and walking around, though a bit wobbly. All plans were thankfully off.

Yesterday after I got home and fussed the dog. It was clear she wasn’t alright and would never be again. This dog that was bright and alert was now reduced to a wobbly, deaf and nearly blind shell. She fell into loops, forgetting where she was, what she was doing, endlessly caught in some pattern that only her confused mind could explain.

Last night we once more agreed and it fell on me to call the vet and make the necessary arrangements. So today, four days along this journey, I made the call. I know it is best for her but it hurts so much. Tomorrow, 1:30.

Kosro we love you.

Black Swans

I read an interesting interview with a statistician in New scientist. The basic premise was that humans are good at predicting straight linear type probabilities – like a die roll or coin toss but hopeless at non-linear predictions. He didn’t call them non-linear events but dubbed them as black swans. I guess he had addressed lay people before and seen eyes glaze over.

He sited several examples of how hopeless we are at predicting these events. The examples included economists hopelessly predicting markets (oil price and interest rates to be specific), the outbreak of war and the importance of the computer/internet. He also talked about when some one predicts one of these events. His explanation is that there are all sorts of people making all sorts of outrageous predictions – only the ones who fluked the right answer gets remembered: the thousands of misses are ignored. I would have to agree with that point.

Initially I was impressed with his logic and argument. I then reflected on my education and experience with non-linear control systems and though duh.

He did make one very good ponit and that was that when some one gives predictions of interest rates or the price of oil or whatever they should also give a confidence level on the number they predict. Now that would frighten the crap out of everyone! Imagine a government setting monetary policy when the basis of policy has an extremely low likely hood of being reality.

So anyway this got me thinking about some of my predictions of gloom and doom about the effects of climate change and peak oil on my circumstance. May be I am hopelessly wrong; I am trying to predict non-linear outcomes. Random factors and other unknowns may make me one of the erroneous predictors. There is the famous example of the late 1800’s where it was predicted that our cities would be neck deep in horse shit by the 1950s. Mind you I have no source for this prediction and suspect it may have been made up by some one who was trying to protect their right to pollute.

I certainly hope my predictions are hopelessly wrong, that some unexpected technology or event changes our current course. Mind you booms, busts and cyclic hardship are a long tradition of our species (and life on earth in general) so we are in for a hiding. I only hope the when is outside my timeline.

Home

My home is where I’m from
Don’t mess with it
It’s where I belong

My people were given this land
By UN sanction. It is mine
Those who occupied it are gone
I have the deed
It is mine

My home is where I’m from
Don’t mess with it
It’s where I belong

My people were given this land
By UN sanction. It is mine
Those who occupied it are gone
I have the deed
It is mine

Occupied

We lived here for a thousand years
People of all creeds
Tension existed but we got on

My land was given away by others
My family was excelled
New rules were made
I can not roam

I want it back
It is mine

Peace man

I have been watching the news over the past week of the latest spat of trouble in the Middle East. This time it is Israel’s invasion of Lebanon that has captured my attention. I have reached the point where I agree with the Arab world that the Israeli state should be wound up and the land returned to the Palestinians.

I need a disclaimer at this point. I am not anti-Jewish or anti-Muslim or anti -whatever. I do not believe that any conflict – ever – was caused by religion or faith. I do believe that the populations are manipulated and mobilised by there leaders using religious and/or ethnic ties.

Yes it would be sad for the five or so million Jewish people living in Israel but it would be better for the world as a whole. The billions that the US and other countries donate to the state of Israel could be used to re-locate those who want to leave. Those who stay can co-exist with the Muslims and Christians of the area as they did before the formation of the country.

It is fairly much inevitable that it will happen anyway and by going early the people could take advantage of the cash that is currently being splurged keeping the country afloat. The assets of the country could also be liquidated and spread amongst the populace. Those that stay could keep what ever assets they have that don’t violate prior ownership. This path will reduce the overall hardship of the people of Israel.

Once the world economy has been weened from oil, and it will happen, the US and others will lose interest and stop spending the billions to destabilize a region. What concern will the west have with a region whose chief export is goats cheese and olives? At the point when economic and military aid dries up the country will collapse and the people will have a very hard time. The cost in terms of human misery will be immense.

The Arab leaders could then fight amongst themselves as is their tradition. The rest of the world could de-couple itself from the mess that the west (and the former USSR) has made in the region for the past 70 odd years and leave it up to the locals to mess it up for themselves. The only outstanding issue in the period between now and the end of oil would be keeping the black stuff flowing (and that has always been the problem).

I wonder if this makes Israel the worlds most oil dependant country in the world.

The creative class

I can’t remember if I have vented about this in the past but over the weekend I heard another pomas git crap on about the ‘creative class’ with reference to performers and artists.

The first time I heard that phrase I was at a weekend stone carving workshop. I can clearly remember this older woman (one of the students) using the phrase while explaining her largess to the arts community to the instructor. I nearly drove my chisel through the piece I was working on. I mean yes artists are creative but referring to them as a The Creative Class is just wrong, stupid and arrogant.

I work as an engineer. I create a lot more and on a grander scale than most artists would even dream about. This is true for a large percentage of my colleges. Scientists computer geeks and mathematicians are immensely creative. We are the people who create the new. We who create wealth in all its myriad forms, not just dollars.

A carpenter or bricklayer is a creative persons. Yes they work from plans (sometimes they even do what is on the plan) but there is creativity. New and novel approaches are developed in all the manual trades all the time. Some artist will represent realty as a series of connected cubes and it is a world changing revolution – not.

If authors, artists and performers need a class to belong to it should be the entertainment class. This files them more correctly. Yes they are creative but their primary output is entertainment (in all its forms). Creativity is part of their stock and trade but it is not the defining aspect, entertainment is. Perhaps communication could be substituted for entertainment.

End of rant.

A letter from the front.

Dear World,

I hope this letter finds you healthy and happy. I know you have been having a hard time lately but these things surely pass. This is just a short note to keep in contact and let you know how I am going.

I am back from weekend away with the family. We stayed at a nice little coastal town some 250km south of my fine city. It is the middle of winter in this hemisphere and we had fine weather. I was even wearing a tee shirt during the day – now that is remarkable.

The thing that I want to write about was a deeply shocking thing I saw on my way to that place, but first, a bit of background. When I was in my late teens to early twenties I drove that path hundreds of times. I was a fairly keen surfer back then and the best waves are south of my home town. I still manage the pilgrimage a couple of times a year, not to surf, just for short family holidays.

The road south follows the coast a few km in land. There is a section of the trip that passes through a national park where a dense, ancient, forest full of large trees approaches the coast. It was magnificent and diverse. (As a side note this corner of my country is world renowned as a biological hot spot – the number of different species per square km rivals the Amazon.)

A few years back I noticed some of the larger trees were dying back. This was sad but such is the nature of a forest – trees eventually die. On my next trip the following year I passed through the forest and was horrified. The canopy of most of the large trees was brown - these trees were dying on mass. A few of my friends had also seen this event and were equally outraged.

Over the next couple of years it seemed to have stabilised. The large trees were left as bare skeletons but the under growth of medium sized trees and some saplings could be seen. It looked like it might recover. It may take a long time but I was hopeful.

This year heading down my worst fears were realised. The understorey was dying. Not just a bit but many km of brown stretched down the highway. As we entered the area just on dusk the destruction was not immediately apparent. After the first km I realised what I was looking at and was alarmed. By the end of it I was nearly in tears.

This area has been forest for thousands of years. It forms part of a national park that people had acknowledged as unique and worth protecting. It is dying and is nearly gone. It’s not as if some developer pushed it down to put in a golf course and housing estate or some farmer cleared it for sheep to roam. It is just giving up and surrendering.

My part of the world is also renowned for something else. Over the past 25 years the average rain fall is about half of what it used to be. This factoid often turns up in lists of examples of climate change. It might make a 5 second point during some lecture in another part of the world but the example is reality for me. The sting is many of my fellow denizens don’t seem to understand the significants of what is happening. The governments solution has been to increase the amount of ground water used and now to build a desalination plant.

I could have wrote about the cave systems north of the city that have stopped forming their beautifully intricate formations or the lack of water run off to the dams that supply the city or the record dry, sunny, winter we are currently experiencing or the degraded state of the native fauna closer to the city. I didn’t because these are things I see every day, and like the frog in pot, it is difficult to appreciate steady relentless change. A smack in the face is more effective.

File this under letters from the front.

Regards

Suburban Surrender

New toys

Well my sweetie didn’t get me an RX8 for my birthday but I did get something nearly as good. A pair of remote control electric cars. They are 2WD stadium trucks, 1/10 scale I think. They handle extremely well – hydraulic shocks on four wheel independent suspension and a nice 20 turn 540 motor.

They are quite quick and have lots of scope for accessorising. Anti sway bars, more powerful motors, a range of tyres and rims, cleverer speed controller, gear ratios, bigger batteries and you can even get an RX8 shell that will fit onto the chassis. I guess some of these will happen via the percussive upgrade method (things break).

I got two. It is much more fun playing with a friend.

Older

Ah….. my birthday. One more year on this mortal coil. One more year of eating and sleeping. It is best I evaluate this year now rather than at new years; things are too blurry around that time of year.

So what have I done and achieved. Not a great deal I am afraid thou I have lost some weight, I am still debt free and achieved a good pay rise through changing jobs. I created some art and fitted out the pantry of my home in a very stylish manner. Not a big year for making stuff but not totally unproductive.

My blog entries have increased in length (but I am unsure about the quality). At least I know that I can dribble at a faster rate than last year. I haven’t measured it but I suspect my alcohol consumption would be at its lowest point in 25 years.

My CD collection grew by thirty or so albums and I read some quite good books. I also went on two holidays and visited four oil and gas facilities.

I am still alarmed at the stupidity I encounter. I know that by this age I should have accepted humanity but I am regularly surprised by the new and novel forms of foolishness I observe. I find it hard to accept the short term opportunism and the lack of long term planning by our current group of world leaders (elected or not). The rise of fundamentalism and the rejection of enlightenment worry me. Perhaps it is just getting older that makes me more prone to intolerance of stupidity.

On a personal note I was depressed for a while for no good reason and I am feeling less sure of my self worth. Still, I love my family and I am hanging around the same people as last year. I still find work a downer but that has been a life constant except for a few brief episodes.

To be continued …….

Beauty

Recently I have failed to see the beauty that surrounds me and this has made me a smaller person. It is important to stop and observe the world every now and then and the thing is beauty is everywhere once you start to look. Everything can be beautiful in some aspect. Everything from thoughts to mechanical contraptions have some worth, some aesthetic that can be contemplated and admired. Some things such as flowers or a sunset are easy to admire. Others, like fat a biker or a tin of soup are more difficult. It is up to the observer to uncover the secret.

Some times it takes training and knowledge to appreciate the beauty of the universe. To me Maxwells equations are a sublime with their ability to describe the electro-magnetic world with out the complexity of photons or general relativity. Sure they break down but with in constraints they are adequate and marvellous.

Very ugly can have a beautiful aspect. To the world the HIV virus is a nasty, evil, trick of nature but to a virologist it must be a wonder. A simple almost living entity that evolution has equipped with such cunning and tenacity.

I don’t really understand what beauty is but I know it when I see it. Some set of cogs kick into place and it is revealed.

I just did an exercise. I looked to the left of the screen I am composing this note upon and spotted a football team fixture booklet pinned to the wall. It was placed there by the previous occupant of this office. Analysing it it’s beauty is manifold. The lyrics to a team song are on one side and the teams fixtures for season 2005 on the other. The song evokes scenes of a crowd I was part of one year when that particular team won. The way the A6 booklet hangs from a blue pin in equilibrium. The tension of the crease trying to close the booklet as it hangs on 45 degree angle. A constant struggle of molecular cohesion against gravity. It has balance and even intrigue. I don’t know what is on it’s other pages although I can see there are several.

I will aim to find beauty around myself when ever possible. Maybe I will become a tree hugging ecstasy popping hippy. Not.

Peace man.

Two Days

Yesterday was gloomy
and this is what I wrote.
Just a short note.
It will serve as marker
a pivot on which to ponder.


More of the same
And tomorrow is similar
A counterfeit smile
A lone tear
No reason
I’m just a little sad

I need something,
No interest, I’m jaded.
Deeply hollow
I don’t care.
Just bland
Is this depression?

Shallow is safe
Outward sturdy
Maintain control
Stifled, confined and restricted
Three ply of security
This is reality

Noodles

The souls (what else could they be?) drifted along unknowing how they had arrived in this place. In death they were surprised to find existence continued. It was a odd place they found themselves in. Shade 22 grey in every direction, no bright spots, no shadows. The only clue of up/down ground was the other ’people’.

After what may have been eternity they knew each other fairly well. Each life and death story re-told many times and often repeated. All told there were three hundred and twenty three.

Once common theme was the time of death. They quickly discovered they had met their various ends in early July 2006. The cause of these deaths were also equally connected. Each has been in the CBD of the same city. They had been engaged in various activities but the end was alarmingly similar.

As you might expect there were a few old acquaintances and most had friends or relatives of friends of relatives of acquaintances in common. There was even a husband and wife and one of their children (even though they had been in different places at the time of death).

So the conversations got quite stale and many slumped into introverted sulks. As happens a few of the group thrived in this strange circumstance. They joined and explored using the central knot of huddled humanity as a land mark, there was nothing else.

Though they walked for many days those that remained in the central group always appeared as constant dots in the distance. The return the journey only ever taking a few hours.

Not even sleep punctuated the existence. Although every one tried none reported any success at this form of escape.

One woman said she felt on the edge of a discovery while practicing deep meditation. This created a minor sensation amongst the group and in a desperate attempt to alleviate the encroaching madness most desperately tried to learn the self control required to enter a deep trance.

In the ensuing weeks (but no one was sure) several of the group disappeared. They had obviously discovered an escape route. No one had seen the events but it was self evident to the remaining group. They reviewed what they had spoken of with the departed and formulated a plan. Before an attempt was made the person would tell another what method they planned to use. If they escaped then this would be disseminated amongst the rest.

It was a good plan and through discovery all but 12 made the transition. The twelve remained. There was nothing exceptional about them of this they were sure. They represented a fair average of the departed.

Frustration built and madness came. One by one they retreated into curled up balls. Grey was only interrupted by occasional sobs or screams.

There was no point.

Breathe in

I have just taken delivery of a pair of books from Amazon. The first is ‘God created the integer’ by Stephen Hawking and the second is ‘The road to reality’ by Roger Penrose.

These are not the usual popular science type physics books that I tend to read – A brief history of time would typify that genera. These are fairly hard core; complex calculus, Riemann surfaces, n-manifolds and the like are exposed in all their squiggly beauty. Sort of a mid point between popular science and text books.

I am at the point of having gone as far as possible I my understanding of modern physics with out getting into the true language of it – the math. That and the fact that I am worried about loosing my ability to understand much of the mathematics that I used as a student engineer. By delving into the hard core I hope to revise my appreciation of the beauty of the equations while learning a bit more about the universe.

I flicked through the books last night and it is daunting. Some 2400 pages of reality stared back. I haven’t made up my mind on the order yet. The Penrose book looks more exiting; hard core physics with the math to support it. The Hawking book is a good revision for the math – it examines the great mathematicians and their contribution from Euclid to Shannon. I will probably go with the latter first.

So I look upon these books now with the same sense of determination that a marathon runner has just before the starting gun. It will be a struggle and I’m not sure if I am up to the challenge – my mental fitness is at an all time low. My goal is to finish them before the end of the year while interspersing a few novels and the usual collection of magazines.

Ready, Set, Go.

Tired again

Yes, once more I am suffering a lack of sleep. I just don’t function on less than 7 hours a night, let alone three nights in arrow of it. 6+6+6=not functioning. To top it off my dog was barking at something (nothing) at about 1:30 this morning and needed some one on one attention. So here I sit today and like the current weather there is a fog about.

The root of the problem is that weekends are just too precious for sleeping. Three nights of going to bed late, two mornings of getting up early. This weekend I did manage a nap but not for long enough.

When I was younger I was a lot more resilient. I often went for weeks with less than 6 hours sleep a night. I can remember feeling off but I could push through. Now I just feel tired. I guess I will push through and get to bed early tonight.

Progress

I like to think of myself as a progressive and liberal sort of person. I believe that the state should not interfere with individuals except where their activities interfere with unwilling/unconsenting others. While this may sound a simple line to follow there are complications.

For me abortion and suicide are straight forward civil liberties. After that a whole pile of cavitates come into play. Consumption of drugs (including alcohol, nicotine, prescription drugs and illegal narcotics) are fine so long as the cost of the product includes what ever societal cost are associated with the drug of choice and obviously the person taking the said drugs are not harming others (driving cars, being obnoxious etc). Basically I believe you can happily indulge whatever whim you have so long as it does not impact on other who have not or are unable to give their legal consent. And by impact I don’t mean it offends your religious or moral sensibilities.

So what about the progressive part of my belief? This is harder for me to explain but, in a nut shell, society should continually evaluate the data at hand to improve the lot of the people. Repressive law or societal customs that prevent individuals reaching their potential are wrong. Laws that entrench certain interest groups are wrong. Failing to take care of those that can’t take care of themselves is wrong.

I don’t believe that the free market works without guidance and restrictions to prevent to much power to accumulate in to few hands but I do believe that the market is the best way to deliver goods and services. I feel that governments are extremely inefficient at supplying services are but that companies (or individuals) that dominate a given market gouge customers. So yes let the market figure out a way to deliver but regulate it to prevent monopolies and price fixing.

Like wise with labour laws.

Storm in a tea cup

Ever notice how the near trivial becomes big news while the important underlying problems of our society quietly fester away? The mainstream news reports killings, wars or celebrity weddings while ignoring the on going wrongness in the world.

Politicians bicker about some outrage to public decency while the worlds resources are depleted with out concern for future generations. The public gets activated by the senseless murder of a child yet are unconcerned about poverty and death through neglect in our cities.

Drug abusers cause massive amounts of crime so the politician’s response is to hire more police. Eliminating the cause of the crime is simple but to unpalatable for the general public. Society ends up spending a heap of money funding police and prisons while the drug lords continue to reap massive profits and promote their trade. This is just an example – not even the tip of the problem.

Why is it that sub optimal responses are the norm. Why do we have to put up with such crap leadership? I live in a democracy and I have been lead to believe that this system is the one that delivers the best results for the people. People, we need to find a different way. We know of all the systems that don’t work but there must be some other way – there has to be otherwise we are doomed.

We need to contain our activities to some level below the sustainable output of the world. We need to reward hard work and innovation. We need to limit the power of individuals on others. We need to prevent cabals from forming. We need to limit the formation of bureaucracies.

What ever the next system is it must rely on the populus of the world for leadership and not individuals. A collective gestalt. Some way of distilling the wisdom of the masses without the interference from leaders. It should be capitalistic in its roots but socialistic in the branches. It must allow freedom and liberty but not at the cost of the rights of the individual to live unencumbered by the activities of others. It must be progressive and inclusive. It must prevent the build up of unreasonable wealth or power but allow extreme reward for extreme input. It must be by the people for the people not by the people for the few.

All this will never happen. People are just too dumb and greedy for a co-operative utopia to exist.

End of rant…

Heavens Gates

Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are two of the richest individuals on the planet. There combined wealth puts many countries to shame. They are shrewd hard driven individuals who have dedicated their lives to the accumulation of dollars. So it is reasonable to be amazed that the pair of them are giving away a large percentage of their wealth to charity. At first glance it seems out of character, but is it really?

I suspect they are seeking immortality in the form of a legacy that represents more than just a large stack of cash to be haggled over by their respective heirs. Certainly Warren Buffet is at an age when death can’t be far away and while Bill is a bit younger but he is also getting on. What ever the reason it is a good thing and should be encouraged.

I can’t remember where I read it but some outrageously rich person said that they would leave there children enough money to do what ever they wanted, but not enough money to do nothing. It is a nice sentiment. It also goes against the dynastic behaviour that seems to be common amongst the rich. Perhaps this marks a return to the ethos that was much respected in the early industrialist of the 19th century. A time when the neo-rich legitimised their place in high society with philanthropy.

Buffet has entrusted his legacy to the control of Gates Foundation. This too is reasonable. On all accounts Gates is an incredibly focused and driven individual. Obviously Buffet believes in him – ten figure numbers are involved. It also implies they see eye to eye on what is important o fix in the world. In this case it seems to be the big two third world killers – preventable childhood death and illiteracy. The eradication of malaria is also a noble cause.

There is also the über conspiracy theory that Gates is secretly developing a method to prolong life. If you read the Tad Williams Otherland series (or a dozen other similar books) you will get the picture. The ultra rich conspiring to prolong their existence using the phenomenal resources at there disposal and equally phenomenal disregard for the method used to achieve the goal. But I don’t think so……

I hope more of the world’s ultra rich join the trend. This can only be a good thing.